呂秀蓮的部落格

East Asia 2020: Dilemma and Prospects

Opening Speech

08.24.2019

The Grand Hotel Taipei

Good morning and welcome to the 3^rd East Asia Peace Forum. Some of you were here last year for the first East Asia Peace Forum. Thanks to the enthusiasm and co-sponsorship of Hon. Deputy Speaker Ju-young Lee of South Korea’s National Assembly and the 21^st Century Economic and Social Research Institute of South Korea, the 2^nd East Asia Peace Forum was hosted in Seoul last December. It was not easy to have two conferences held in the same year. Thank you Dr. Yoo Joon-sang and the delegation from South Korea.

At the opening of the first Peace Forum, I quoted an African saying that, when two elephants fight, the grass on the ground will be trampled. But how can the peace-loving small animals around survive? In fact, America and China are in sharp conflict, starting with their trade disputes, then technological and ideological feud. No one sees the end, but everybody knows that it is the fight for the new global hegemony. The Indo-Pacific strategy promoted by Washington counters the China’s One Belt One Road initiative. It certainly is a battle between the two elephants to decide who will be the next global super power.

Just in the past two years, world attention was drawn by the drastic and even dramatic changes in East Asia. The confrontation between North Korea and the U.S. nearly endangered the Korean Peninsula. But now the focus is on the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. Abruptly, the chaos in Hong Kong is a burning issue and the historical and trade conflicts between Japan and South Korea also deserve our concern..

At the last session of our first Peace Forum, I pointed out that Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and the Philippines which share common interests of peace, democracy and prosperity shall work together to develop a Bloc of Neutrality to balance the rising confrontation of the American Eagle and the Chinese Dragon.

Later I learned from specialists like Professor Herbert Reginbogin and Dr. Michael O’Hanlon that a New Security Architecture for neutral states in Eastern Europe has been proposed to stabilize the region and reduce the risks of wars with Russia. It would require Russia, like NATO, to commit to uphold the security of Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova and other states in the region.

The New Security Architecture for the new neutral states of Eastern Europe would be founded on the concept of sustained neutrality for those countries not now in NATO. Under the proposed architecture, the U.S. and other NATO member states should continue to implement their plans to station modest amount of equipment in the easternmost NATO states. It would have a real chance of reducing tension, and the risk of war.

Would there be a chance to reduce tension and risk of war in the region of East Asia? Look at the increasing tension aroused by the PRC’s construction of air bases along with anti-ship missiles at their newly developed artificial shoals in the South China Sea. Look also at the Taiwan Strait. In recent months, both China and the U.S. have commanded their air and navy forces to show their muscles above and beneath the Taiwan Strait regularly and frequently, making Taiwan a target for the military confrontation between two super powers.

On July 24, PRC proclaimed their White Paper on National Defense in the New Era. Compared to all the earlier white papers, this year they use the harshest language to intimidate Taiwan and reiterated Beijing’s stance that it will never allow the secession of any part of its territory, nor to renounce the use of force against “the ‘Taiwan independence’ separatists and their activities.”

Following the return of Hong Kong to China in 1997, the “One Country, Two Systems” formula has been used to seduce Taiwan. But Taiwan is not Hong Kong. The PRC has no legitimacy to claim its sovereignty over Taiwan at all. The UN Resolution No. 2758 adopted by the UN Assembly in 1971 simply decided the PRC’s sole representativeness of China. Not any single word of Taiwan was ever mentioned in the content of that Resolution. Ever since 1996 the citizens of Taiwan elected their President once every four years. Indeed, Taiwan has developed itself into its own sovereignty with vigorous democracy and has become a beacon of peace and democracy; Taiwan is not for sale nor for mockery.

Hong Kong was returned to China on July 1, 1997. But Hong Kong in accordance with the 1984 Sino-British Joint Declaration shall be allowed to maintain status quo for 50 years till 2047. But look at what has been happening in recent weeks there! We have reason to suspect that the PRC is playing its card of “killing a chicken to scare the monkeys.” How Beijing is treating Hong Kong is a demonstration that how the PRC will treat Taiwan in the near future. May we pray for peace and prosperity for Hong Kong. We also sincerely hope that the historical resentments between Korea and Japan can be wiped away soon. The harmony and alliance of Japan and two Koreas are very crucial for the stability and prosperity in East Asia.

Moreover, rising democracies like all of us have elections regularly and frequently. Can we have our fingers crossed that no information technology will undermine our electoral democracy by fake news or cyber attacks, or whatever detrimental to true democracy? Can we as responsible politicians and scholars work closely together to invest more in peace and prevent war in advance? Above all, can we all the participants of the East Asia Peace Forum begin to think seriously about fostering a Value Alliance in the region?

Yesterday was August 23, a historical day for Taiwan in 1958 and for the Baltic states in 1989. Two million people across the borders of the Baltic three countries built a six million people’s wall to cry for freedom and independence hand in hand. Today, we are delighted to have one of the most outstanding leaders from Lithuania and a member of the European Parliament to deliver the keynote speech for our Peace Forum. We are also privileged to have two Honorable Deputy Speakers of the House of Representatives from the Philippines to be with us. They are bringing us some good news from Manila, hopefully!

Thank you.